Coconut Grove's new-construction shortage has a date attached to it. According to the David Siddons Group, as reported by Miami Today, fewer than 400 new condo units are scheduled to enter the Grove market between 2026 and 2028. Three named projects make up most of that number, and all three target delivery in 2028. Until those buildings open, the Grove's new product will come mostly from builders putting up single-family spec homes. Meanwhile, older resale inventory, a different part of the same neighborhood, is where buyers have room to negotiate.
This explains why two Grove listings with similar square footage and similar street appeal can trade on very different terms. The premium goes to being new, more than to location, and for the next two years "new" is in short supply.
The pipeline lands in 2028
Here are the three projects that account for most of the forecast, in order of their reported delivery targets:
- Four Seasons Private Residences Coconut Grove. This 20-story tower at 2699 South Bayshore Drive comes from CMC Group and Fort Partners. Multihousing News describes it as a 70-unit project, while Florida YIMBY's July 2026 report lists 70 condominium residences plus four penthouse residences. Construction began in October 2025, and Multihousing News reported in February 2026 that residents were expected by mid-2028. The design team includes architect Luis Revuelta, interiors by Michele Bönan and landscape architect Raymond Jungles. In July 2026, Florida YIMBY reported that work was moving into the first elevated level, with completion scheduled for 2028.
- The Lincoln, 2650 Lincoln Avenue. This is a 48-residence boutique condominium from LORE Development Group, a joint venture of Leste Group and Opportunity, working with Element Development. Construction has started, and completion is scheduled for Q3 2028, according to Berkadia's September 4, 2026 financing announcement. The same release says the project has passed 40% sold.
- THE WELL Coconut Grove. This is a 194-residence joint venture between Terra and AB Asset Management, designed by Arquitectonica with interiors by Meyer Davis. When it broke ground in January 2026, more than half the residences were pre-sold and the opening target was Q4 2028, PROFILEmiami reported.
That adds up to 312 residences, or 316 if the four Four Seasons penthouses are counted separately. The delivery targets run from mid-2028 to Q4 2028, roughly 20 to 26 months from October 2026. Most of the Grove's forecast new condo supply will arrive within about six months of each other in 2028, after a long stretch in which very little new product is delivered.
What a 2028 delivery date means at contract
Pre-construction buyers commit to a date that can change. THE WELL is an example: the groundbreaking coverage cited a Q4 2028 opening, while the project's undated marketing site lists an earlier Q1 2028 estimate. Neither figure is a promise, and the gap shows how delivery estimates move depending on who publishes them and when.
The financing structure carries the same message. The Lincoln's $58 million construction loan from SME Capital runs 30 months and includes two six-month extension options. Extensions are a normal part of construction lending. They also mean the lender planned for more time than the headline completion quarter. A buyer who needs to move in by a fixed date, such as a family relocating for a new role or an executive timing a sale elsewhere, is choosing a 2028 arrival with some margin of uncertainty, not a set closing date.
Sales progress shows how quickly that limited supply is being committed. Two of the three projects reported being at least 40% sold well before delivery. When residences are absorbed before the buildings exist, the units still available in 2028 will be a smaller share than the totals above suggest.
Who sells "new" in the meantime
Buyers who want a new Grove home before 2028 have mostly been turning to spec single-family construction. The clearest recent example is 4040 Kiaora Street. The developer, Sabal Development, sold the newly built home for $22.5 million, which the Miami Herald reported in August 2026 set a neighborhood record for a non-waterfront sale. Sabal's construction arm, Sabal Luxury Builder, designed and built the house, according to PROFILEmiami.
The location is the key detail. The Herald places the home about a mile inland from Biscayne Bay. In a neighborhood where bayfront acreage has long set the top of the market, a new house surrounded by landscaping, with no water frontage, set a record. That sale shows newness carrying a large share of the price that water frontage used to carry.
The incentives follow from this. A builder looking at a Grove lot in 2026 knows the next large wave of competing new condo product is two years away and has mostly been pre-sold. A finished spec home faces little direct new-construction competition during that period. That is the economic reason the single-family spec market has room to operate now, and why sellers of new homes hold pricing power that sellers of older homes do not.
The other speed
Daniel Berman, CEO and president of Mint Developers, described the split to Miami Today in October 2026:
"There are two speed markets racing at the same time. At the top end in new construction, the demand is strong and the supply is low."
He called the lower end of the Grove a buyer's market. In that segment, he said, there are more options, properties take longer to sell, and buyers have more room to negotiate. He tied the difference to financing. Cash buyers at the top are less affected by interest rates, while higher rates are holding back buyers farther down the market.
County-wide data from MIAMI Realtors shows the same pattern at a larger scale, with one important difference by property type. In August 2026, Miami-Dade had 4.9 months' supply of single-family homes, which the association classifies as a seller's market, and 12.1 months' supply of existing condominiums, which it classifies as a buyer's market. Single-family inventory fell 19.23% year over year that month, and condo inventory fell 9.04%. At the top of the market, the county recorded 194 sales of $10 million or more through August 2026, already 14.1% more than in all of 2025. Cash buyers made up 37.8% of all closed sales in August 2026 and 50.5% of existing-condo sales.
These are county figures, not Grove figures, so they show direction rather than local levels. Still, the direction matches the Grove's pipeline. Supply is thinnest in new construction and deepest among existing condos. The 2028 cluster will add new condos to the Grove, but it will add them at the new-construction end of the market, not to the resale stock where buyers currently have leverage.
How the two speeds change a Grove search
For a buyer comparing the Grove with Brickell, Coral Gables or Miami Beach, the schedule above shifts the decision in a few specific ways:
- Move-in date versus finish level. A new Grove condo means waiting for a 2028 delivery window that can shift. A new Grove house available now comes from a limited spec market priced for that scarcity.
- Where negotiation happens. Berman places buyer leverage in older, lower-priced inventory where properties are taking longer to sell. In that segment, terms such as inspection periods, closing timelines and price can still be negotiated.
- Renovation as a way into "new." Because newness carries so much of the price, an older home bought with negotiating leverage and then updated is a different calculation from paying the new-construction premium at the outset. A build-quality assessment before contract matters more in this case than with a finished spec home.
- 2028 as a resale variable. Owners planning to sell around 2028 will be listing at the same time as several hundred new residences come online. For resale condo owners in particular, that timing is part of the pricing environment.
FAQ
How many new condo units are coming to Coconut Grove? According to the David Siddons Group, as reported by Miami Today in October 2026, fewer than 400 new condo units are scheduled for 2026 through 2028. Four Seasons Private Residences, The Lincoln and THE WELL together account for 312 residences, or 316 counting the Four Seasons penthouses separately, all targeting 2028.
Is Coconut Grove a buyer's or seller's market right now? It depends on the segment. Local developer Daniel Berman describes the new-construction top end as favoring sellers and the lower end as a buyer's market. The newest county data, from August 2026, puts Miami-Dade single-family homes in seller's-market territory and existing condos in buyer's-market territory. MIAMI Realtors' next monthly release is scheduled for October 16, 2026.
Can a non-waterfront home in the Grove command a top-tier price? The 4040 Kiaora Street sale in summer 2026 shows it can when the home is new. At $22.5 million, it set the neighborhood's record for a non-waterfront home, about a mile from the bay.
If you are weighing a 2028 pre-construction contract against a finished home available today, or deciding how to price an older Grove property during a period when "new" is scarce, Boschetti Realty Group can walk you through the construction timelines, build quality and resale timing behind each option. Work With Us.
This article is general information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Consult a qualified professional about your situation.
